Here's the winning ticket for Week 11:
Browns -2.5 at Baltimore
Patriots -15.5 at Buffalo
Packers -9.5 vs. Carolina
Lions +2.5 vs. New York Football Giants
Houston/New Orleans over 47.5
The rationale: the Browns can score and the Ravens can't; the Patriots are unstoppable and with Marshawn Lynch on the pines, the Bills won't be able to hang onto the ball; the Packers are charmed and the Panthers are playing Otto Graham at QB this week; the Lions are God's Team and the Giants built that 6-game winning streak against a bunch of chumps; and Andre Johnson is back for the Texans so there should be points aplenty in that one.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Long week
Well, I'd better at least recap last week before we look at this week's NFL games. I went 4-for-5 on my parlay, with only the Eagles' fourth-quarter comeback against the Skins costing me the money. I was just a touch frustrated as I watched the green helmets matriculate down the field with impunity because I felt so confident (and rightly so) about the rest of my picks.
Not much else is going on in my world. Sorry so boring. I'll have more tomorrow, however.
Not much else is going on in my world. Sorry so boring. I'll have more tomorrow, however.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
The 5-teamer, Week 10
In my never-ending quest to beat the wise guys at their own game, here's what to look for in the NFL tomorrow:
Buffalo -2.5 at Miami
Cincinnati +4.5 at Baltimore
Washington -2.5 vs. Philadelphia
Dallas -1.5 at the Giants
IND/SD under 48.5
One of the problems with betting on the NFL this year is that there are so many terrible teams, and even more mediocre teams, that you have to bet on one of them when you're picking a parlay. It's even worse when New England has a bye week.
My rationale here is that Miami is just pathetic and the Bills are at least a field goal better than them on the road, the Bengals should score enough to stay close to the offensively challenged Ravens, the Skins are tough at home and the Eagles are terrible everywhere, the Cowboys are one of the few teams you can feel good about no matter where they are playing, and the Colts will keep the ball on the ground enough (if they watched the game films from Adrian Peterson's evisceration of the Chargers last week) to keep that game under its inflated total.
By the way, if you're interested, my friend Smooth Jimmy St. Paul turned me onto a fascinating article about betting lines on nationally televised games. The gist of the article is that sports books will crank up both the spread and the total because people like to bet on games they're going to watch, and they like to bet on favorites and on the over (because who wants to root against points being scored?). So the smart money on most Sunday and Monday night games is on the dog and the under, or so the theory goes. Food for thought, at least, and perhaps it figured into my Colts-Chargers under pick.
Buffalo -2.5 at Miami
Cincinnati +4.5 at Baltimore
Washington -2.5 vs. Philadelphia
Dallas -1.5 at the Giants
IND/SD under 48.5
One of the problems with betting on the NFL this year is that there are so many terrible teams, and even more mediocre teams, that you have to bet on one of them when you're picking a parlay. It's even worse when New England has a bye week.
My rationale here is that Miami is just pathetic and the Bills are at least a field goal better than them on the road, the Bengals should score enough to stay close to the offensively challenged Ravens, the Skins are tough at home and the Eagles are terrible everywhere, the Cowboys are one of the few teams you can feel good about no matter where they are playing, and the Colts will keep the ball on the ground enough (if they watched the game films from Adrian Peterson's evisceration of the Chargers last week) to keep that game under its inflated total.
By the way, if you're interested, my friend Smooth Jimmy St. Paul turned me onto a fascinating article about betting lines on nationally televised games. The gist of the article is that sports books will crank up both the spread and the total because people like to bet on games they're going to watch, and they like to bet on favorites and on the over (because who wants to root against points being scored?). So the smart money on most Sunday and Monday night games is on the dog and the under, or so the theory goes. Food for thought, at least, and perhaps it figured into my Colts-Chargers under pick.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Welcome to music hell
People who know me well know that I'm into the live music scene. Or at least I was in Minneapolis. I'd get to a couple shows a month, at First Ave or the 400 or the Turf Club, wherever great bands played in the Twin Cities.
So on the surface, you'd think the move to Las Vegas -- The Entertainment Capital Of The World! -- would have worked out well for me. Except that it hasn't.
That's because the bands I like, the bands who would play First Ave or the 400 or the Turf Club, generally don't play Vegas. I've seen a couple decent shows as part of the Vegoose Festival -- Beck two years ago, Jenny Lewis last year -- and I've seen the Decemberists, the Drams, Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the Hold Steady in the last year. I also missed a chance to see Rilo Kiley last month when I happened to be back in Minnesota.
But that's it. That would have been a good month for me in the past. Now, it's a good year. That was hammered home to me last week when I got the following e-mail from Ticketmaster, promoting upcoming Las Vegas shows:
That's right -- Tool, Bryan (not Ryan) Adams, Barry Manilow, and the guy from Korn (not even all of Korn, just the guy from Korn). That's what I've got to look forward to here in the next two months or so.
So I've got a new slogan for the LVCVA. "Vegas: It's kind of like if they moved the Medina Ballroom to Branson!" Or, alternatively, "Vegas: The Mystic Lake of the West!"
So on the surface, you'd think the move to Las Vegas -- The Entertainment Capital Of The World! -- would have worked out well for me. Except that it hasn't.
That's because the bands I like, the bands who would play First Ave or the 400 or the Turf Club, generally don't play Vegas. I've seen a couple decent shows as part of the Vegoose Festival -- Beck two years ago, Jenny Lewis last year -- and I've seen the Decemberists, the Drams, Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the Hold Steady in the last year. I also missed a chance to see Rilo Kiley last month when I happened to be back in Minnesota.
But that's it. That would have been a good month for me in the past. Now, it's a good year. That was hammered home to me last week when I got the following e-mail from Ticketmaster, promoting upcoming Las Vegas shows:
| On Sale This Week | ||
Check out these event(s) that matched your interests.
|
| Other events going on sale in your area. |
| Nathan Burton Comedy Magic V Theater at Planet Hollywood Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV Thu, 11/22/07 more dates On Sale Wed, 10/31/07 | Bryan Adams The Joint at Hard Rock Hotel Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV Fri, 02/08/08 more dates On Sale Sat, 11/03/07 |
| MANILOW : Music and Passion Las Vegas Hilton Las Vegas, NV Tue, 03/04/08 more dates On Sale Sat, 11/03/07 | PURE New Year's Eve Celebration The Colosseum At Caesars Palace Las Vegas, NV Mon, 12/31/07 On Sale Wed, 10/31/07 |
| Jonathan Davis of Korn House of Blues Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV Tue, 12/11/07 On Sale Fri, 11/02/07 |
So I've got a new slogan for the LVCVA. "Vegas: It's kind of like if they moved the Medina Ballroom to Branson!" Or, alternatively, "Vegas: The Mystic Lake of the West!"
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Week 9: What we learned
Well, we learned that I was darn close to playing with the house's money for the rest of the year. Here was my five-team parlay: Lions -2.5 vs. Denver, Bills +0.5 vs. Cinci, Cowboys -3.5 at Philadelphia, Chargers -7.5 at Minnesota, and Patriots -5.5 at Indianapolis. So, if not for the historical greatness of Adrian Peterson (link to my pal Dave Campbell's game story) and the curious non-return of a fumble by Roosevelt Colvin (who could have turned right and headed into field goal range), I might have been rolling in the Station Casinos' money tonight.
We also learned that the NFC might not be as bad as the AFC after all. Check out how NFC teams fared in interconference games this week:
Oh, and the Vikings just signed Koy Detmer. The rich get richer.
We also learned that the NFC might not be as bad as the AFC after all. Check out how NFC teams fared in interconference games this week:
- Detroit beat Denver 44-7 as 3-point favorites
- Green Bay won 33-22 at Kansas City as 2.5-point underdogs
- The Vikings spanked San Diego 35-17 as 7.5-point dogs
- New Orleans hammered Jacksonville 41-24 as 3.5-point favorites
- Washington beat the Jets 23-20 in OT as 3-point road favorites
- Tennessee beat Carolina 20-7 as 7.5-point favorites
- Cleveland beat Seattle 33-30 in OT as 3-point home favorites
Oh, and the Vikings just signed Koy Detmer. The rich get richer.
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