Monday, November 24, 2008

House money!

Your favorite degenerate NFL gambler finally has something to celebrate -- my first successful five-team parlay of the year! As you might know, I play a five-team NFL parlay every week, sort of my own little one-man office pool. If I hit it once, it puts me in the black for the entire season (23-to-1 payoff).

I hit it once each in 2005 and 2006. I got blanked last year, and was 0-for-11 this year heading into yesterday. But I was coming off a 3-for-5 week, and had a 4-for-5 performancea week earlier, so I was feeling pretty good about my great NFL mind.

The early games didn't give me much to sweat out -- the Lions-Bucs game was well on its way to going over at halftime (21-17), and the Ravens and Pats both pulled away late, but both teams were pretty competitive through the first three quarters. Maybe I would have fretted about the Pats-Dolphins game a little more if it had been one of the late games, but by the time I realized I was staring at a 3-for-3 start, they were taking it to the Phish.

On to the late games, where I had the Falcons -1.5 and the Raiders-Broncos game under 42.5. Just before halftime, I was practically counting the money in my head, as the Falcons led 17-0 and the game in Denver was tied 3-3. Even Carolina's field goal didn't make me sweat much, but then the Raiders housed an 89-yard punt return with 1:06 to play in the half. Even after Matt Prater missed his second field goal of the half, I couldn't help but be a bit miffed that the Raiders took a 10-3 lead into the locker room, rather than a 3-3 tie.

In the second half, Carolina stormed down the field for a quick TD and suddenly it was a ballgame again in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Denver tied the game at 10 less than six minutes into the second half, and the Raiders responded with a TD four minutes later. Suddenly we were sitting on 27 points with 20 minutes to play, meaning I had a 15-point cushion. I could survive two more TDs, or a TD and two field goals, but anything more and I would be screwed.

Back to Atlanta, where the Falcons were reeling. Another John Kasay field goal cut their lead to 17-13 and the offense was struggling. The announcers (Thom Brenneman and a very impressive Brian Billick, who might have found his true calling) were saying things like, "This is a young Falcons team and a veteran Panthers lineup -- this is where it could start to slip away for Atlanta." Not good times.

But suddenly the Falcons responded. A 12-play, 80-yard drive led to a Michael Turner TD on the first play of the fourth quarter and seemed to buck up their confidence a bit. Even after the Panthers marched right back down for another TD to cut the lead to 3, the Falcons drove it right back down Carolina's throats with a 74-yard TD drive. Then the defense got rolling again, forced a punt deep in Carolina's territory, and when my new hero Harry Douglas returned it 61 yards to paydirt for a 17-point lead with 4:47 to play, the game was as good as over.

Back to Denver, where the Raiders scored another touchdown (by former Bronco Ashley Lelie -- how do you like me now, Broncos?) in the first minute of the fourth quarter, then picked off Jay Cutler and drove 43 yards for another TD, making the score 31-10 with 9:42 to play. It wasn't looking good for your favorite degenerate NFL gambler at that point -- just a simple field goal would do me in.

But because the Broncos were down by three TDs, they eschewed a long field goal attempt on fourth-and-11 at the Raiders 38 and turned it over on downs with 6:47 to play. Then Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden started tearing off yardage in chunks and the Raiders started grinding down the clock. God bless Mike Shanahan, who didn't use any of his three timeouts because it was clear that his team was done and just needed to get off the field. And God bless Tom Cable, who didn't need to boost his ego by taking a shot at the end zone. The Raiders ran the ball eight straight times, had it down to the Broncos 23 at the 2-minute warning, and when I saw them line up in the Victory formation I knew I was golden. Two Jamarcus Russell kneel-downs later and I could finally celebrate.

So, I'm playing with house money for the rest of the year, and after doing the math I realized that even with my 0-for-2007 disaster, hitting it three times in four years actually puts me in the black overall, even if I come up empty the rest of the way (17 weeks x 4 seasons = 68 weeks; 3 winning weeks x 23-to-1 odds = 69 units of profit; 69>68). And I didn't get out here to Vegas until about Week 4 of the 2005 NFL season, so that's a few more bucks in my pocket regardless.

But if I do hit it again this season, it'll be a banner friggin' Christmas at the Donnelly household this year!

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