Monday, October 13, 2008

The bad beat, or why J.T. O'Sullivan is dead to me

Every gambler has a "bad beat" story -- a tale of woe about the one that got away, the poker player who lost when an opponent drew an inside straight or the guy whose 30-to-1 longshot was leading by 10 lengths before pulling up lame with a furlong to go.

If those tales bore you, read no further. The rest of you, stick around to hear how I lost my five-team parlay to the utter incompetence of J.T. O'Sullivan.

Those of you who follow WHIH regularly know that I play one five-team parlay every week, my own office pool if you will. It pays 23-to-1, so if I hit it once, I'm playing with house money all year. I hit it once each in 2005 and 2006, but came up empty last year. And going into last weekend I was 0-for-5 thus far this year.

But I really felt good about last week's card. I won the two early games pretty handily -- the Vikings-Lions under 45.5 was the no-brainer of the season thus far for me, while the Jets laid only 6.5 against the Palmer-less Bengals and won by 12.

So I was 2-for-2 heading into the late games. Things started to turn a bit sour for me when the Cowboys and Cardinals couldn't seem to score any points. I needed them to top 50.5, but late in the first half it was 7-0 Arizona. I was doing better with my other two bets -- the Niners (+5) were staying with the Eagles, and the Seattle-Green Bay (under 46.5) game was dragging along to a 10-10 halftime score.

But with the Cards and Cowboys firing blanks in the desert, I resigned myself to another shutout weekend and headed out to pick up some groceries. It was about 4:00 p.m. when I got back into my car, and the first thing I heard on the radio was a scoreboard update. The Cowboys had just scored to cut their deficit to 24-21 with just over 2 minutes to play -- I knew if Arizona scored an insurance TD or if Dallas got the ball back and drove for a field goal, I'd win that one (24-24 going into OT, the only thing that beats me is a safety or a tie).

Then I heard that Seattle was down 27-17 with the ball deep in their own end and 3 minutes to play. Keep that game scoreless the rest of the way and suddenly I'm 4-for-4. The last I'd heard, the Niners were not only keeping it close, but they were leading 26-17 going into the fourth quarter. Well, the Eagles had come back to take a 30-26 lead, but the Niners had the ball deep in their own end with about 4 minutes to play. Since I was getting five points, all I needed was for San Francisco to mount a drive and burn some clock, or even punt the ball and let the Eagles run out the clock.

I suddenly had a hop in my step, and when I got home I raced into my office to watch the three games play out. You probably already know that Seattle did nothing with the ball and lost 27-17 (3-for-3!) and the Cowboys did force OT, whereupon the Cardinals blocked a punt and scored a TD (4-for-4!) -- though if that blocked punt had skittered through the end zone, instead of dying at the 2, I'd have been saddled with a safety and a 50-point game (i.e. a half-point loss).

That's where J.T. O'Sullivan comes into play. The journeyman quarterback whom the Niners installed as their starter this year just had to not screw up for me to win. Naturally, he screwed up. O'Sullivan was sacked and fumbled the ball inside his 20. Because the Niners had three time-outs left, the Eagles couldn't just kneel on the ball and run out the clock.

However, if Philly could run three times, burn the Niners' time-outs and get a first down, they'd surely kneel on it from there on out. Sure enough, they ran twice and the Niners stopped the clock twice, leaving the Eagles with a 3rd-and-2 from the 12. Correll Buckhalter was stopped about three millimeters short of the sticks, leaving the Eagles with 4th-and-the width of a dime for a first down. But Andy Reid played it safe, kicked the field goal, and the Eagles now led by 7.

But J.T. O'Sullivan was not done torturing me yet. The Niners got the ball back with one more shot -- a long-shot at best, but still, J.T. had the ball at his own 25 with 54 seconds to play. If he could drive the Niners to the tying touchdown and force overtime, I'd like my chances to win my bet with a field goal for either team.

On first down, J.T. got my hopes up with a 25-yard completion to midfield. But two plays later, he threw another interception -- his second of the game and third turnover in the fourth quarter -- and Juqua Parker returned it 55 yards for a touchdown to end it. San Francisco got outscored 23-0 in the fourth quarter, costing me the fifth leg of my elusive five-team parlay.

And the hunt for the great white whale continues.

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