Well, the WCC Tournament had gone pretty much as expected until late Sunday night, when No. 3 San Diego stormed back from a 15-point second-half deficit to beat St. Mary's 75-69 in double overtime. The Toreros actually had the last shot in regulation and the first overtime, but Brandon Johnson missed pull-up jumpers from about 18 feet both times. Then Johnson hit the shot of the game, a fall-away 3-pointer off an inbounds pass in the corner with the shot clock at 1 to put San Diego up by five points with three minutes to play -- the Gaels never got closer than four thereafter.
So San Diego, which is playing the tourney on its home court, now faces top-seeded Gonzaga, which slipped past Santa Clara in Sunday night's other semifinal. It should be a good one, because the Toreros are led by first-year head coach Bill Grier, who spent 16 years as an assistant at Gonzaga before getting his first head coaching job in San Diego. The Zags won both regular-season matchups against USD this year -- by 10 in Spokane, and by four in SoCal -- but they looked shaky against a .500 Santa Clara squad that had played the night before.
Oddly enough, St. Mary's might be cheering for San Diego in this one. The Gaels should be in the NCAA Tourney -- they finished the regular season with an RPI of 33 and scored big victories over Oregon, Drake (everybody's darkhorse heading into the big dance) and Gonzaga. Their only two "bad" losses were both at San Diego.
The Toreros are 20-13 and they'll need to win on Monday night to get to the NCAA Tourney. Gonzaga is in by virtue of their 29 RPI and their regular-season conference championship. Conventional wisdom says that a San Diego win knocks out St. Mary's, because the WCC just isn't worthy of being a three-bid conference.
But that logic should be shot down when you look at the numbers. If St. Mary's ends the season with a top-40 RPI, a strong showing against a decent nonconference schedule, and a total of three WCC losses -- all against regular-season champion Gonzaga and tourney champion San Diego -- I don't see how the committee could stiff them.
Then again, this is the NCAA we're talking about, an organization that could screw up a one-car parade. Which means it's just as likely that they'd give the WCC only one bid if the Zags knock off San Diego again on Monday.
Should be an interesting night of hoops, and a long week for Randy Bennett and his St. Mary's Gaels.
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