Death, taxes and Andy Roddick

I wish the outcomes of NFL games were as easy to predict as things like Al Sharpton inserting himself into a controversy involving race, or Andy Roddick bowing out of another Grand Slam tournament against a lower-seeded player.

But thanks to the parity of the league (Patriots not withstanding), handicapping the NFL is a bit trickier. Last week your humble predictor went 2-2 (or 5-3 counting over/unders), with a perfect Saturday and a perfectly awful Sunday. I hit on the Packers and the over, and the Jaguars and the under. But then the Chargers and Giants bit me on the backside, leaving the Colts-Chargers over as my only Sunday win.

As Smooth Jimmy Apollo once said, "When you're right 52 percent of the time, you're wrong 48 percent of the time!" With that caveat in mind, let's get to the picks:

Chargers (+14.5, 46.5) at Patriots -- Yes, you saw that right, the dreaded half-point tacked onto the spread. That's what the book listed at Green Valley Ranch, so that's what we're going with. Either way, I think the Patriots will take care of business because of many factors, including a cold-weather team flying six hours and skipping over three time zones to play its second road game in seven days in frigid weather against an unbeaten team.

Let's also not downplay the whole Randy Moss distraction. Some people have said this incident could hurt the Patriots. But let's recall how the Patriots responded the last time they faced a so-called distraction of this significance: in the week after Spygate, the Patriots rallied around their much-criticized coach and destroyed their opponent 38-14.

That opponent? The San Diego Chargers. Factor in the injuries to their starting quarterback, all-pro tight end and all-everything running back (who will play, but will be hampered), and the Chargers just have too much stacked against them. Patriots 34, Chargers 17.

Giants (+7.5, 40) at Green Bay -- Once again, we get saddled with the dreaded hook in this one, but once again, I just don't see the underdog being able to overcome numerous factors working against them. The Giants will be playing their third straight road game, and while they've been great away from Joisey, three straight will take its toll on even the hardiest of road warriors.

Then you've got the Favre factor. I just can't see him failing in the cold. It would be like betting on Superman to drop the girl falling from the skyscraper, or Rudy Giuliani getting through a 30-second soundbite without referencing 9-11. Until I see it happen, I can't see it happening, know what I mean? Packers 24, Giants 13.